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After what began with attending the rain-shortened Open Test back in April, all of the lead-up comes to a head this weekend with the 108th Running of the Indianapolis 500.

While the Month of May began with discussions about a P2P controversy, talk quickly shifted from that to the term plenum events. In between, there was a rain-soaked week of practice that led into a gorgeous weekend of qualifying. There were good crowds at the gate, and apparently in front of the TV screens, as NBC saw a 32% increase in viewers over last year’s weekend of qualifying.

While I’m sure Dale Coyne and Nolan Siegel wishes there had been only thirty-three entries this year, I think we were reminded why having at least thirty-four entries are good for the sport. We’ve seen what Last Chance Qualifying looks like when there are only thirty-three cars entered. The last three cars jockey around to see who sits where in the last row, but no one really cares.

It wasn’t that long ago (2011) that we saw forty cars trying to squeeze into thirty-three spots. That made for a very hectic Bump Day. The drama we saw last Sunday involving a veteran fulltime driver (Graham Rahal) and a former winner (Marcus Ericsson); also underscores why there should never, ever be guaranteed spots for the Indianapolis 500. Guaranteed spots would’ve assured those drivers spots in the field, while the two Dreyer & Reinbold entries would’ve battled it out with the slowest extra entry from fulltime teams. They’ve messed with qualifying enough over the past twenty-five years. Let’s not tinker with it any further.

What I liked about last Sunday was that having his face on the Borg-Warner Trophy did nothing to protect Ericsson. There are no provisional starting spots or champion’s spot. It is the fastest thirty-three cars. Period. Ericsson had to earn his way in, as did Rahal and Katherine Legge. That’s the way it should be.

Susan and I actually drove up last night, after I got off work. We got behind a wreck in Kentucky, where we didn’t move for 45 minutes. Then we hit Indiana construction about 30 miles in. About 25 miles south of Indianapolis, we got stuck behind a burning car. It took us an hour and fifteen minutes to get past that. All in all, what is normally a four and a half hour trip – took us over seven hours. My mood was not good when we checked in.

With the Carb Day practice starting at 11:00 am today, it would’ve been really tough to get up early, lose an hour to the time change, park and get settled by 11:00 am local time. Instead, we drove up with less traffic and will sleep in a little bit before driving to the track. Plus, we don’t have to take our luggage to the track and bake all day. Once the practice is over, we will mill around the garage area before the Pit Stop Challenge takes place. After that, we will probably leave the grounds before the Carb Day Concert gets going. That’s for the younger set. Our stand-up outdoor concert days are behind us. We will probably have an early dinner at Dawson’s and head to our hotel.

With the IMS Museum closed for major renovations this year, Legends Day has been whittled down to the ceremonial Driver’s Meeting. Although there is no access to the museum, the Memorabilia Mart has been moved offsite and they no longer run the vintage cars any longer – IMS is still charging $20 to attend Legends Day. I think I’ll pass.

With nothing going on Saturday, both of my brothers have elected to arrive on Saturday. One is flying in on Saturday afternoon, while another is driving in from North Carolina and will not arrive until sometime Saturday night. We are all staying at different hotels, so we may not see each other until at the track on Sunday.

Unless we get a burning desire to attend the Driver’s Meeting, I seriously doubt we will be at the track at all on Saturday. We may go to the Memorabilia Show on Saturday, since it has now been re-located at the Embassy Suites in Plainfield. We aren’t staying at Embassy Suites, but we are staying in Plainfield this weekend. They now charge $10 apiece, but we can probably swing that, since it is so close. We will probably eat at The Coachman, our new favorite spot where we go when we are staying in Plainfield. That’ll let us call it an early night, because our day on Sunday begins with waking up at 3:30 am, much to Susan’s chagrin.

Unfortunately, rain is prominent in Sunday’s forecast. The probability of rain has increased as the week has gone on. Oh well, I guess we are due. We have not had a race affected by rain since 2007. We haven’t had to come back a second day since 1997, when it took a third day to finish it.

My goal is to be inside the track by the time the opening-bomb goes off at 6:00 am. There is something so serene and peaceful about being inside the track, when it is still dark and only a few people are allowed inside to wander about. It is such a relief to know that you are there. You were able to avoid any delays or traffic jams. When the glow of sunlight begins to pop over the backstretch and the crowd starts filing in, you are reminded how crazy things are about to become. Those few calm moments get me in the right frame of mind for the rest of the day.

Like all Indianapolis 500s, this one has several storylines and subplots, besides rain. I guess the biggest one is the presence of former NASCAR Champion Kyle Larson. He qualified fifth and many consider him as a threat to win the race. What happens with Larson if it rains Sunday is still up for debate. We may not know until Noon on Sunday. This is also only the second time a team has locked down the entire Front Row. Team Penske sees all three of its drivers up front with an unobstructed view. Scott McLaughlin, the only driver for Team Penske that has yet to win the Indianapolis 500 is on the pole. 2018 winner Will Power starts in the middle of Row One, while the reigning Indianapolis 500 champion, Josef Newgarden, starts on the outside. Many say that is actually the preferred slot, because it gives the driver a better angle going into Turn One.

Row Two is a very intriguing trio. On the inside is the 2016 winner, Arrow McLaren’s Alexander Rossi. Next to him is his teammate, Kyle Larson. On the outside of Row Two is AJ Foyt Racing’s Santino Ferrucci, who came in third last year and had a legitimate shot to win.

I think any driver in the first two rows has to be considered a contender for the win. I can’t say the same for Row Three. Between Rinus VeeKay, Pato O’Ward and Felix Rosenqvist – I think O’Ward and Rosenqvist are the only contenders. Until VeeKay shows me he can last until the end, I won’t take him seriously.

Row Four has two former winners in Takuma Sato and Ryan Hunter-Reay, alongside third-year starter Kyle Kirkwood. For a variety of reasons, I don’t think any of them will win on Sunday. That can’t be said for Row Five, where we find Colton Herta, Alex Palou and Callum Ilott. I like Ilott, but I don’t give him much of a chance to win, but Herta and Palou both have an outstanding shot. While Chevys dominated with the extra boost last weekend, the playing field seemed to have leveled in the Monday practice with the added boost gone and cars in race trim.

Over the next two rows, the only drivers I give a decent shot of winning are Helio Castroneves starting twentieth, and Scott Dixon starting on the outside of Row Seven. Helio was very quiet throughout practice and qualifying. I think he will also be quiet on Sunday, as the Drive for Five will elude him again. Dixon, on the other hand is still Scott Dixon. Even though he is back in the pack, I still expect him to run up front in the latter stages of the race.

No one starting beyond Row Seven strikes me as having a chance to win, but that doesn’t mean they will all hang around the bottom third of the grid all day. Once the green flag drops, I think both Marcus Ericsson and Graham Rahal will both move up. I predict that both of them will finish the day in the Top-Ten. I also expect Christian Lundgaard and Conor Daly to move up throughout the day.

You can view the entire starting grid here.

But who will win? Two drivers I’ll really be pulling for are Santino Ferrucci and Alexander Rossi. I’ve also got two sentimental favorites in Helio Castroneves and Scott Dixon, but neither of them will win. Only once in the last fifteen years has the pole winner gone on to win the race – Simon Pagenaud in 2019. Before that, it was Helio Castroneves in 2009. Will Scott McLaughlin break that trend this year? Probably not. Will Josef Newgarden be a repeat winner? That has happened only five times, and not since Castroneves pulled it off in 2001-02.

Obviously, only one driver can win. I think Will Power is on a mission to put his mediocre 2023 season behind him. His wife, Liz, is very healthy now; and he no longer has her health in the back of his mind. He knows Father Time is catching up with him, and he wants another Indianapolis 500 win and an IndyCar championship before he hangs up his helmet. He has had laser focus all season. Although he has yet to win a race this season, he is now the points leader going into the Indianapolis 500. Will Power will win the 108th Running of the Indianapolis 500 on Sunday and extend his point lead.

There will be a post here this afternoon, recapping the Carb Day practice. Then on Saturday, I’ll have a post outlining my wish list for 2025. Then I will post here on Sunday morning before the race, and a wrap-up after the race. Monday, I will have my usual Random Thoughts post, but I can’t guarantee it’ll drop in at its usual early time. It may drop in mid-morning – but it will be here.

Race Day is almost here. I can already feel it.

George Phillips

This entry was posted on May 24, 2024 at 4:02 am and is filed under Indianapolis 500. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.