Indianapolis 500 Preview
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First of all, I want to express my shock and condolences to the family and friends of NASCAR two-time champion driver Kyle Busch, who passed away unexpectedly yesterday at the age of 41. We learned Thursday morning that he had been hospitalized for a severe illness, and would not race in Sunday’s Coca-Cola 600. But I don’t think anyone had any idea it was this serious. Please keep his family in your prayers.
It seems like the Open Test was just a few days ago, and we are already here at Race Weekend for the 110th Running of the Indianapolis 500. For the third Friday morning in a row, Susan and I are driving up this morning and hope to arrive at the Carb Day practice. As is usual for May in Indiana, the weather is questionable. Depending on which weather app you look at; either there is no way there will be any type of practice on Friday, or that they will get the practice in and it will rain Friday afternoon. We are planning on the practice running on schedule, and hope to be at IMS before 11:00 am.
For two drivers, it is imperative that they get to run a two-hour practice. Alexander Rossi and Pato O’Ward will both be driving new (backup cars), after destroying their primary cars I the practice this past Monday. I don’t think either of them looks forward to testing their cars for the first time at speed, being Lap On of the race. Romain Grosjean had significant damage to his car, but his Dale Coyne Racing team was able to rebuild his primary car.
Honda drivers already had their new engines for the race by the Monday practice; however the Chevy drivers will turn their first laps with their new powerplants in the Carb Day practice. Really, the Carb Day practice is important to all drivers. If the Friday practice is a wash, I’m hoping they will try to get it in on Saturday; but I’ve heard no contingency plans, other than fans speculating on social media. Stay tuned.
A little after 3:00 CDT Thursday, we learned that Alexander Rossi has been cleared to drive, after injuring a finger on his left hand and a bone in his ankle on his right foot. Fans have been all over the place on whether Rossi should even attempt to drive with those injuries. Some are quick to point out that Greg Moore had injured his wrist the day before his fatal crash. We have no way of knowing if that played a part in his 1999 crash at Fontana. Others point out that Rick Mears won his fourth Indianapolis 500 with an injured right foot in 1991. Still others like to mention that Buddy Lazier and Gil de Ferran both won their respective Indianapolis 500 wins in 1996 and 2003 with broken backs.
But we are in a different time period now, where there is no such thing as being overly cautious. I really had no idea how IndyCar would rule. Remember that IndyCar decided that their drivers should not even attempt to qualify in the rain for the Sonsio Grand Prix a couple of weeks ago, despite the fact that the rain tires have proven to be very effective on road and street courses.
Quite honestly, it’s been a dull month. Between Katherine Legge confirming the thirty-third entry just before the Open Test, and Rossi’s crash on Monday, there have been no storylines. Not that I like crashes, but it usually draws a lot of attention when a car crashes on Thursday or Friday and the team has to thrash to put it back together in time for qualifying. I’ll never forget when I was at IMS for practice week in 2019. Fernando Alonso crashed his McLaren entry on Wednesday, and Kyle Kaiser destroyed his Juncos entry on Thursday. Kaiser’s car was in much worse shape, and they could not even afford spare parts. While the Juncos team borrowed Dallara parts from other teams to put together something of a Frankenstein’s monster, McLaren took their time repairing Alonso’s car. They even wasted a day sending it out to the paint shop, because they felt it’s color of papaya was just a shade off and needed correcting. You all know the story; Kaiser and tiny Juncos Racing bumped Alonso and mighty McLaren out of the 2019 Indianapolis 500 – in a shot literally heard around the world.
This is an example of the storylines that have been missing from the Month of May thus far. I am hopeful that a positive storyline can emerge from Carb Day practice, whenever it is held; but also something of a positive nature can come completely out of nowhere that will forever identify the 2026 Indianapolis 500. Will it be that hometown heroes Ed Carpenter or Conor Daly drink milk and complete a lifelong dream? Will Alex Palou become the second back-to-back winner in a four-year span? Will Helio Castroneves pull off an unprecedented fifth Indianapolis 500 victory? Can Scott Dixon avoid becoming the next Mario Andretti, by winning multiple races and championships, but only winning one time in the Indianapolis 500? What about Will Power? Can he win another 500 without Team Penske?
Those are storylines, but those storylines existed back in March. Other than the Rossi crash, there has been nothing of note to really draw us in, other than the fact it is another running of the Indianapolis 500. That is enough for me and most readers of this site, but that may not be enough for the more casual fan, who sometimes actually needs a reason to tune in.
I guess before the Rossi crash on Monday, the biggest storyline coming out of qualifying was the lack of performance by the Andretti cars throughout the entire month. Kyle Kirkwood was borderline near the front in the Open Test and early in the week of practice. As the week went on, he kept losing speed. It was rare to see Marcus Ericsson in the Top Ten and Will Power was pretty much a non-factor all month.
Conversely, Team Penske began to gather momentum as the month went on. David Malukas, the newcomer to the team, qualified on the front-row, while Scott McLaughlinwill start a respectable ninth. Only two-time winner Josef Newgarden had issues in qualifying and will start in the middle of Row Eight.
Many people are looking for a sleeper and have fallen in love with Kyffin Simpson. I’m not buying it. Yes, he will roll off seventh on Sunday and he has avoided the bone-headed moves that plagued his first season in IndyCar, but I’m still not buying it. He has a good-looking car this season, but that’s about it. I am not ready to jump on the Kyffin Simpson bandwagon. With my track record of making picks, I have probably just guaranteed him to be drinking milk on Sunday.
And that will lead us to my picks for Sunday. Sentimentally, I would really like to see Scott Dixon win one more 500 before he hangs up his helmet. It would be almost criminal for Dixon to be in a position to challenge AJ Foyt on the all-time IndyCar wins list, yet have him end his career tied with as many Indianapolis 500 wins as Buddy Rice, Eddie Cheever and Floyd Davis. He deserves better than that, and Dixon is the pick of my heart.
But my head says differently. Perhaps I should just keep picking Palou until he stops winning. Subconsciously, maybe I don’t want Alex Palou to pick off another 500 so easily, but I really don’t think he will. Palou is way overdue for some bad luck to hit him. Rinus VeeKay took him out in the pits a couple of years ago. Palou rallied to finish fourth that year, but without VeeKay interfering, Palou may have gotten his first 500 win that year. The same VeeKay took Palou out at Phoenix earlier this season, and this time he ended up in the wall. I’m not wishing bad luck on anyone, but if Palou and VeeKay end up near each other on the track Sunday, it might be interesting to take note.
The track is not always kind. Lloyd Ruby, Michael Andretti, Tony Bettenhausen, Rex Mays and Ted Horn all had outstanding careers at the Speedway, but were never able to win for whatever reason. It appeared that Josef Newgarden and Tony Kanaan were also destined to go winless in the 500, but fate smiled on them. It allowed Kanaan to win one, and Newgarden two in a row. Will Fate finally smile on a long-term veteran this year? I think so. It’s a driver who has certainly paid his dues, he’s popular with the fans and he is backed by a team who is doing everything the right way. I think Conor Daly and Dreyer and Reinbold have been one of the teams to beat all season, and it’s not a fluke. They are the ones who will be celebrating at the end of the race on Sunday. I’ve had that feeling all month and I just can’t shake it. We’ll see.
Only one of my brothers is coming this year, Jim – the oldest, and his son Jimmy. They have seats just about eight rows down from us in Stand A. My other brother has tickets right next to mine. He sold them to family members of his wife. I always like when newbies come to the track. I hope they will be converted to full-time fans by the end of the weekend. Sometimes that happens, sometimes it doesn’t.
My brother, his son and myself will be going to the museum early Saturday morning, since the afternoon slots were all sold out. I was thinking there would not be as big of demand, so if you’re thinking about going Saturday and you don’t have tickets – there aren’t many left. After spending the morning at the museum, the three of us will head to Charlie Brown’s. Susan said she would prefer to sleep in Saturday morning and be well-rested for Sunday. She will join us for dinner Saturday night before we all turn in early.
I will have a short post here on Saturday, then some posts from the track on Sunday – before and after the race. Then I will have my Random Thoughts post here on Monday, nut it may be noonish on Monday before I post it. I’m usually wiped out after the race, and only capable of a quick post-race write-up. But I will be here throughout the weekend. Please check back today after carb Day and all through the weekend.
George Phillips
May 22, 2026 at 4:16 am
My heart says Santino or Veekay and my head says Palou, Newgarden or Malukas. Good luck to all of them.
May 22, 2026 at 8:58 am
Is it me, or does anyone else get goosebumps when they open up oilpressure and see the title, “Indianapolis 500 Preview”? We wait all year for it, and then it always seems to sneak up so fast!
Good call on Conor Daly George. As for my pick, I have a theory that if you race for Roger Penske long enough, (and your name’s not Ryan Briscoe), you’re going to win the Indianapolis 500. I believe that holds true this Sunday and we will see Scott McLaughlin drink the milk. Redemption for last year’s pace lap crash blunder. Redemption for his crew chief, and former Penske president, Tim Cindric as well.
May 22, 2026 at 9:14 am
Sentimental choice–Ed. My choice–Pato. If I had to bet money choice–Palou. Hoping for a dry day and a safe race.
May 22, 2026 at 10:00 am
I would love to see Conor Daly lead the last and only lap that counts. I know he will probably be in the mix and lead at some point. My second choice would be Ed Carpenter. But I do for sure think the winner is going to come from a non- full time driver. Would also love to see everyone’s head explode if Katherine Legge wins… She’s paid her dues also. If a full time driver wins, Like you, I also hope it will be Scott Dixon.
May 22, 2026 at 10:59 am
Have a great weekend and a great race, George.
Hoping for Newgarden and Kirkwood to move up from the back, for Malukas and Rossi and O’Ward to also challenge Palou at the front, and for Rahal and Legge to finish on the lead lap. Would love to see a redemption story for RHR too.
Simpson’s a speedy guy, but his racecraft is not there yet and he remains mistake-prone (see Arlington, where he punted a tire into his own teammate’s car in the pits and then triggered the accident that brought out the final caution). If he stays up front I think it will be because he was put into a position where he got to run a lot of laps without much traffic.