Oilpressure

It’s odd how something doesn’t work for one track, but is successful at another. From 2006 through 2010, the NTT IndyCar Series ran at Watkins Glen over the Independence Day weekend. Even though the racing was very good, the holiday weekend events were very poorly attended. When the plug was pulled on the event after the 2010 season, many cited the Fourth of July weekend as the reason for the sparse crowds. It served as a cautionary tale to not schedule events over or near the mid-summer holiday weekend.

A few years later, the schedule makers tried scheduling the new race at Pocono over the Independence Day weekend, with the same results as Watkins Glen – a very poor turnout.

When then moved the Honda Indy 200 at Mid-Ohio to the July 4th weekend in 2021, I assumed it was going to be the beginning of the end for that event. This had always been an event with good attendance, but I feared the new holiday date would eventually kill it off. While Watkins Glen and Pocono struggled to get fans to attend their Independence Day weekend, Mid-Ohio excelled at it.

Is it because the state of Ohio is starved for major motorsports events? Ohio is the home for two NFL franchises, two Major League Baseball clubs, one NBA team and one NHL franchise; but aside from IndyCar and IMSA racing at Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course, there are no major auto racing events in the state of Ohio, even though the Midwest is a hotbed for motorsports. So an area starved for motorsports is probably happy to have a three-day weekend to attend a major event at Mid-Ohio. That’s my theory, but for whatever reason – the IndyCar race at Mid-Ohio has become a major attraction, since they moved the race to the July 4th weekend. I expect this weekend to be no exception.

The NTT IndyCar Series enters the weekend with the same question that has plagued it most of this season – Can anyone beat Alex Palou? In nine races this season, six times, the answer has been an emphatic No. In the three races where the answer was Yes – Kyle Kirkwood has been the only one capable of doing it.

Kirkwood is having a phenomenal season, yet he trails Palou by 93 points just past the halfway mark in the season. While Kirkwood and a few others are still mathematically alive for the championship – so much bad luck has to hit Palou, along with a slew of good luck for Kirkwood that it’s pretty much over for the most part. We have now reached the point to tune in to individual races to see who else might win a race. We all know that Palou is probably going to win, but we can still enjoy a race at face-value without worrying about who will win the championship.

Basically, there are still a lot of storylines to keep things interesting. There is the situation of where Will Power might be driving next season. There is the aftermath of Team Penske firing three nearly irreplaceable individuals in top-management positions, and the freefall that has followed. Equally compelling is the resurgence of both drivers at AJ Foyt Racing in the last two months, while the team they have a technical alliance with (Penske) is struggling.

Rinus VeeKay is also enjoying the change of scenery at Dale Coyne Racing. I imagine Coyne is quite happy too, having one car above the line for the Leaders Circle money at this point in the season.

On the flipside of the incredible season that Kyle Kirkwood is having, the other two drivers at Andretti Global are not faring as well. Colton Herta has shown flashes of brilliance, but is mysteriously currently mired in the 10th spot in points. Marcus Ericsson is now 21st in points. He has driven better than the results show, including losing second place in the Indianapolis 500 due to a disqualification – but the results don’t lie. With engineer Olivier Boisson being moved to an R&D position within the team and being replaced by Dave Seyffert, it looks like they are scrambling for answers with that car. I really like Ericsson, but I fear he may not be in that car after this season.

Mid-Ohio begins the stretch run for the summer, and some possible answers for many of these storylines. Beginning with this weekend, there are five races over the next four weekends counting the double-header at Iowa. There will be a one-weekend break after Laguna Seca, then the final three races in August – Portland, Milwaukee and Nashville. It’s really hard to believe that there is only one off-weekend between now and the end of the season. That’s how imbalance the IndyCar schedule is. By May 1, the season was two months old, and we only had three races under our belt. Now the season will be over by the end of next month, with almost half the season crammed into that time frame. I know a lot of pieces have to fit to solve the scheduling puzzle, but something needs to be done to balance things out. That’s my two-cents worth, anyway.

So what about this weekend? For the longest time, Mid-Ohio was the playground for Scott Dixon. Between 2007 and 2019, Scott Dixon won at Mid-Ohio six times, while Ganassi teammate Charlie Kimball won there in 2013. The good news for Dixon is he is currently 5th in the championship at the halfway point. That would normally mean he was still within striking distance of the championship. The bad news is that he is currently 155 points behind Palou. But still, he has been competitive in most of the races this season. Although he has not won since last year at Detroit, Dixon is certainly capable of winning races – especially at a track where he has had so much success.

The other graybeard in the field is Will Power, who is driving well this season. Power is desperate for a win to solidify his plans for 2026. Desperation is not always the secret to success, and I think Power may be to the point in this contract year where he is pushing. I have an idea Power will be very fast this weekend, but will ultimately make a critical mistake.

Between Palou and Kirkwood, Honda has won all of the races this season. Chevy is really not that far off the mark, but once again – it’s hard to argue with results. Honda spoiled the party for Chevy at their sponsored race in Detroit. I think irony will come into play this weekend and Chevy will return the favor by winning the Honda Indy 200, and gain their first win. Will it be a Penske driver ending their season-long drought that stretches back to Milwaukee of last season; or will it be Pato O’Ward backing up his Mid-Ohio win from a year ago to finally put Chevrolet into Victory Lane for the first time this season? The answer is neither.

We have reached the part of the season, where the only driver capable of beating Alex Palou for the championship is Alex Palou. As long as he does nothing foolish, he will win his fourth championship in five years. Look for him to play it safe for the rest of the season. There will be several drivers already auditioning for next year – either with their current team or another team. That can lead to mistakes.

There is one driver who is currently enjoying a semi-decent season, yet is solidly in place for next season. He currently has 8 IndyCar wins on his resume, including an Indianapolis 500 victory. However, he has gone close the three years since his last win; so he’s hungry for a win – not to protect his job, but just for his own fulfillment. I’m talking about Alexander Rossi giving himself, Ed Carpenter Racing and Chevy a much-needed win this weekend. We’ll see.

The fireworks get underway Friday afternoon with Practice One at 4:30 pm EDT on FS2. Since we are an hour earlier, that won’t interfere with our 4th of July grilling. Practice Two will be Saturday morning at 10:30 EDT on FS1. Qualifying takes place Saturday afternoon at 2:30 EDT on FS1, while the Sunday morning warmup will be shown live on FS1 at 9:30 EDT. The race broadcast begins at 1:00 pm EDT on Big Fox.

I hope everyone has a safe and Happy Independence Day!

George Phillips

This entry was posted on July 4, 2025 at 4:03 am and is filed under IndyCar. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.