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Just after the Thanksgiving holiday, I was finding it a little difficult to come up with IndyCar-related topics to discuss here. After all, it is the offseason and the holiday season, where things can really slow down in the IndyCar world. The good news is that is no longer the case. The bad news is that the topics coming out of the NTT IndyCar Series for the last several days have mostly been negative.

It was bad enough last week, when we learned that Penske Entertainment President Mark Miles let it be known that a new chassis for IndyCar was not a priority for the series, even though the current car is headed into its thirteenth season. Miles said the development and debut of the hybrid system was the top-priority at this time. A couple of days later, we learned that the introduction of the hybrid component will be pushed back until sometime after the 2024 Indianapolis 500.

After I got home from work on Friday night, I read the latest bombshell article from Marshall Pruett of Racer.com, where he revealed that Honda is seriously considering leaving IndyCar after their contract is up following the 2026 season. The main reason for their possible departure would be the escalating costs to remain in the series they have competed in since 1994.

In a frank discussion, Pruett conveyed that Honda no longer feels that IndyCar is getting a good return on its investment the way things are currently. Pruett quoted American Honda Motorsports Manager Chuck Schifsky as saying “We have great concerns over the costs, If we were to choose not to renew, that would be the reason why. And it’s easy to see. We don’t have a third manufacturer, and there’s a reason for that: It has to do with the cost. If the return on investment matched up with the investment, we’d have a number of other manufacturers involved.” Ouch!

That elusive third engine manufacturer is the key. Currently Chevy and Honda split the load, with Honda providing engines for a little more than half of the twenty-seven car grid. When Honda first got into IndyCar, they were one of three engine manufacturers (four, if you count Buick for the Indianapolis 500),

It took Honda only two years to go from being a backmarker in the Rahal cars in 1994, to winning the CART championship with Jimmy Vasser and Ganassi in 1996. By that time, there were four engine manufacturers – Honda, Mercedes, Ford and Toyota. Ford carried the bulk of the load that season, powering eleven of the twenty-six car field of fulltime entries. By comparison, Honda only powered six cars on the grid, yet won the championship in only their third year of competition – beating out dedicated racing engine builders Cosworth (Ford) and Ilmor (Mercedes).

For 2024, Honda is expected to power fifteen fulltime entries in a twenty-seven car field – almost triple what they ran in 1996. Chevy will run twelve fulltime entries. Bit manufacturers are expected to be able to provided as many as eighteen engines for the Indianapolis 500. By signing a third engine manufacturer to supply engines to a third of the field, that would greatly reduce the costs currently incurred by Chevy and Honda. I’m no accountant, but even I can see how that savings would go straight to the bottom line. Schifsky indicated that would certainly improve Honda’s return on investment.

Many are seeing this as saber-rattling by Honda. It may be, but I don’t blame them and I don’t think they are bluffing. They are simply frustrated. Honda was the sole engine provider for the series from 2006 until Chevy returned with Lotus in 2012. The Lotus effort was laughable and quickly turned into a black-eye for the series, as all but one team abandoned Lotus a third of the way through the 2012 season. Chevy and Honda agreed to take up the slack and absorb the teams that had originally signed with Lotus. This was an unexpected hardship, but the two manufacturers agreed to do it for the good of the series, until a third manufacturer could be signed to fill the void caused by the Lotus debacle. Twelve years later, we are still waiting.

I know Jay Frye and his team have been trying to sign another manufacturer, and they have come tantalizingly close a couple of times. But things would fall through at the last minute, and Honda and Chevy kept carrying the burden; although they were both hemorrhaging money on an annual basis. Keep in mind, Frye had not even begun working for IndyCar, when the Lotus debacle took place – so don’t lay the blame on him for this mess.

The point is, Honda no longer has any desire to continue with the status quo. They have made their intentions clear that they want a third engine manufacturer. They have sitting patiently, watching IndyCar’s efforts to sign another engine provider go with no results. But I think they’ve had enough and they aren’t bluffing. I fully believe that if nothing happens, Honda will end what will then be a continuous thirty-two year relationship with IndyCar.

Keep in mind, Honda can’t delay their decision until after the 2026 season-finale. These decisions are made way in advance. According to the Pruett article, the clock is already ticking. IndyCar needs to have a third engine manufacturer signed before the start of the 2025 season, or Honda will be a lame-duck manufacturer in 2026.

This probably also explains why IndyCar wants to launch the hybrid system as soon as it’s ready in the middle of the 2024 season, rather than wait until the start of the 2025 season. Potential new engine manufacturers want to know it is a viable system before committing to the series. Hybridization is very important to engine manufacturers, and they want to know that they are getting involved with something resembling newer technology.

I don’t think it was accidental that Schifsky mentioned NASCAR as an alternate destination for Honda, if they left IndyCar. Fans are growing restless as the bad news for IndyCar has been outweighing the good news recently. If a longtime partner like Honda left IndyCar out of frustration and went to NASCAR, that would be a public-relations nightmare for the series.

Personally, I don’t normally like threats, and I am always inclined to call someone’s bluff when I am being threatened. In this case however, it is clear that Honda has drawn a line in the sand. But they have also done so with a reasonable timeline to try and resolve the problem. For once, I’ll agree that a new chassis needs to be put on the back burner. If developing the hybrid is IndyCar’s number-one priority, I think Honda has made it clear that signing a new engine manufacturer should be Priority 1-a – it’s that important.

Anytime something negative happens with the series, the Legions of the Miserable come out of the woodwork, to overreact as they predict the death-knell for the series. Such was the case over the weekend after the Pruett article came out on Friday. The thing is, this time they may actually have a case, IndyCar needs to resolve this problem now, before it reaches Year Thirteen with only two manufacturers committed to the series. If that happens and Honda leaves, all bets are off.

George Phillips

This entry was posted on December 11, 2023 at 4:04 am and is filed under IndyCar. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.