When it is Wrong to Speculate

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As we are just about a week and a half away from the dreaded IndyCar offseason, there is a lot of speculation swirling on just about every topic imaginable. Will Driver A sign with Team X? Will Driver B still have a seat at Team Y next season? Will Team M win their lawsuit against Driver P? Whether it is professional journalists like Marshall Pruett, Nathan Brown or Bruce Martin using their sourcing to make calculated predictions on what things will look like next season; or lowly bloggers like myself who go on mostly gut feelings – everyone seems to have an opinion on the makeup of the 2024 IndyCar grid. It’s fun to throw out speculation, and let people talk about it – then see what sticks.

That’s what we do. It’s like sports-talk radio in print.

There is a topic, however, that should be off-limits to everyone – journalists, lowly bloggers and even fans on forums and Facebook posts – and that is the health and future of Simon Pagenaud, who released the following statement on Monday.

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Pretty much all journalists have avoided the topic altogether. Marshal Pruett of Racer.com was careful to write a factual article the other day, reporting that Pagenaud had announced he would not be in the No. 60 Meyer Shank Racing (MSR) Honda for the remaining two races of the season. He was doing what he should do – report the facts, but do no speculating.

I’ve tried to follow those guidelines as well. It’s one thing to try and guess where David Malukas might end up for next season, or whether or not Romain Grosjean will return to Andretti Autosport. I’ve even voiced my personal opinion on Alex Palou and his seemingly self-inflicted contractual situations. It’s another thing to speculate on a driver’s health and how his or her health impacts their driving status going forward.

I’m not talking about any of the IndyCar journalists, bloggers or readers of this site. I’ve always said that this site may not have the largest number of readers, but they are not only the most loyal – they are also some of the most intelligent and civilized fans in the IndyCar community. So please don’t think I’m aiming this rant at any of you. This is mostly preaching to the choir, on my part.

I’ve grown very tired of seeing self-declared medical experts in several IndyCar-related Facebook Groups, passing judgment on Pagenaud’s condition. It seems that anyone that has had a concussion or knows someone who has is suddenly a qualified expert on concussions and the recovery process.

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Concussions affect people in different ways. No two are alike. Predicting how someone will recover from a concussion is like predicting how someone will get over the death of a loved one. No two people deal with grief in the same way, and no two people recover from concussions the same way.

Since Simon Pagenaud had his violent crash at Mid-Ohio on June 30, I’ve seen so many people on social media speculating on Pagenaud’s condition. Some of these people are heartless, claiming that Pagenaud is scared to get back in the car. Others claim that he refuses to ever drive an MSR car again, because they are undriveable. Others are floating the claim that Pagenaud has suffered permanent brain damage and is incapable of ever driving a race car again.

As far as I know, none of these claims are true. The problem is, the people saying them don’t know either.

It’s one thing to have a conversation with a buddy over a beer and say these thoughts. It’s another to put them in print on social media for the world (and Pagenaud) to see. While someone may think they are harmlessly speculating, others see these things in print and take them as gospel. More times than not, these things spin out of control, and a lot of what was nothing more than some loud mouth trying to show how much he or she knows about concussions – somehow is believed to be fact. It’s that old saying; perception is reality.

Careless speculation can become damaging. If rumors start swirling that a concussed driver is now seeing pink elephants, that can affect any future sponsorship possibilities or even potential future rides.

Sometimes I think that corporations and HR Departments can take HIPAA a little too far. When my good friend and former co-worker, John McLallen, was lying in a hospital bed back in 2010 – I was officially chastised when I was overheard giving another co-worker an update; even though he had made it clear he wanted me to. This was all due to HIPAA.

But in this case, none of us know anything about Pagenaud’s condition. I just wonder what these Facebook experts think they are accomplishing by speculating and throwing out conjecture on Simon Pagenaud’s health and his driving future. Why not just stay quiet and offer him our hope and support?

Thanks to all of the readers here, who have refrained from making a single comment regarding Pagenaud’s driving future or condition. You’ve all simply expressed concern over his health. It’s a shame some of these IndyCar-related Facebook Groups don’t follow the same guidelines.

George Phillips

8 Responses to “When it is Wrong to Speculate”

  1. […] 2023 at 4:04 am and is filed under IndyCar. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own […]

  2. Couldn’t agree more. While I’m sure everyone has their own uneducated guess as to what will happen, I am thankful that Simon got up and walked away from that horrific incident. I’ve seen many less violent accidents with much less desirable outcomes. Whatever Simon decides to do, that’s up to him and his doctors… not the uneducated few. I for one will not think any less of him either way.

  3. billytheskink's avatar
    billytheskink Says:

    Thank you, George, this was well said. I have also been irked by quite a few of the comments I have read about Pagenaud. The speculation on his condition is unbecoming and pointless, as is posturing about what the “right” thing for him to would be.

  4. Great job George. 100% on the Pagenaud situation, and on your assessment of the oilpressure.com community. It’s the only site I know of where people share on-topic IndyCar comments like grown ups.

    • northeastvista's avatar
      northeastvista Says:

      Regarding George’s “assessment of the oilpressure.com community” I think it reflects George and Susan’s demeanor. Very professional , intelligent, and civil personalities. For those reasons the only racing blog I follow. I can’t tolerate Sports Talk Radio because of the screaming voices! I guess they were never told to use their inside voices! Stay Safe!

  5. Very well said, George, especially the way you compared how people handle and cope with things differently. Nothing ever good comes from Facebook either, just avoid it as much as possible! We all want to see Simon back in the car, but he is the only person that knows when/if he will be ready.

  6. Well, it’s called F*c*book for a reason …

    Here’s wishing all the best to Simon Pagenaud, including first and foremost, a full recovery.

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