Oilpressure

All but one practice is in the books for the 109th Running of the Indianapolis 500, and that one will run later this morning (!1:00 am EDT, on FS1). The field was set on Sunday, then re-set on Monday after two Team Penske cars were penalized for altered attenuators, sending Josef Newgarden ad Will Power to the back row, starting 32nd and 33rd respectively. Each team was fined $100,000, had their race strategists suspended for the 500 and also lost their choice of pit boxes for Sunday’s race – meaning that instead of pitting near the south end of the pits, these two cars will most likely be pitted to the far north end.

Wednesday morning, Roger Penske lowered the boom. Team President Tim Cindric, IndyCar Managing Director Ron Ruzewski and IndyCar General Manager Kyle Moyer were management casualties ("departures") from this fallout. Some have indicated that IndyCar Technical Director Kevin Blanch may be on the hotseat, for allowing these altered attenuators to pass through technical inspection for the past year or so.

It’s an ugly story and one that I think could get uglier as it lingers through the summer.

This will be my thirty-third Indianapolis 500 to attend in person. Although Doug Boles said we could, I don’t count 2020. They ran the race and I wasn’t there, so I don’t count it. More importantly, this is the sixtieth anniversary of my first 500, back in 1965. I was six years old at the time and had just finished my first grade year in school. It was a day I will never forget, and it started my love affair with this place that has continued these sixty years later.

Unfortunately, almost everyone has been talking about Team Penske and the rear of the field, instead of Robert Shwartzman who earned his way as a rookie to the very front of it. A rookie driver with a brand new team winning the pole is one of the biggest stories to come out of 16th and Georgetown in quite a while. It helps that Shwartzman come across as a very likeable guy, who genuinely seems stunned at what he accomplished this past Sunday.

Do I expect Shwartzman to win on Sunday? No. As the FOX crew pointed out in the Monday practice, he seemed a lot more comfortable running in clean air at the front. than he did running in dirty air behind other cars. He will be encountering a lot of dirty air on Sunday, and I don’t think he will be much of a factor in the race. That’s no disrespect to Shwartzman or PREMA, but I just think Sunday will be a whole new learning experience for both team and driver. Might they win this race someday? That’s entirely possible, but it won’t be this year.

I think by starting on the last row, the least desirable pit stalls and substitute race strategists – those are pretty strong arguments why Will Power and Josef Newgarden will not win on Sunday either. Some will point out that Newgarden lost Tim Cindric last year also to a suspension. That’s true, but Newgarden started on the front row, and they learned before the Month of May started that he was losing Cindric, not six days before the race. I think Newgarden’s chance for a three-peat just flew out the window, and Power most likely will not be winning his second 500 this year – which could be his last year with Team Penske.

I’ll be surprised if Penske teammate Scott McLaughlin wins, as well. Had he not torn up his primary car in practice last Sunday, he would be a prime contender to get his first win. But he is starting in his backup and was only thirty-first quick in Monday’s practice – his first in that car. If he can’t get it sorted out in today’s Carb Day practice, I think he may be in for a long day.

With some fast cars in the back and some surprise cars at the front, I expect this to be a very entertaining race and one that is more wide-open than others. Lots of drivers stand a good chance of winning, and you can’t say that every year.

Other than Team Penske, many of the usual suspects have a chance to win. That would include Shwartzman’s fellow front-row competeitors, Takuma Sato and Pato O’Ward (Sato and Pato?). Sato will be going for his third 500 win. O’Ward has been oh so close, you would think he’s going to close the deal sooner than later.

Anyone in Row Two, Scott Dixon, Felix Rosenqvist and Alex Palou, can win. For the past couple of years, Santino Ferrucci has started up front and has contended for the win. He will start a little further back in the fifteenth spot. He can do it from there, but he hasn’t really liked his car all month. He would be a long shot.

Who is my pick to win? I would be stupid if I picked anyone other than Alex Palou. He was a little quiet in Pole Day Qualifying, but he was quickest in the Monday practice session. I think he will continue his 2025 season dominance and win his first Indianapolis 500.

But for the 500, I do reserve the right to pick a dark horse candidate. My dark horse has had a very quiet but solid month and has mostly gone under the radar. For him, that’s a good thing compared to his disastrous Month of May a year ago. A lot of times, it’s those that have been overlooked that shine on Race Day at Indianapolis. By the way, he’s also won this race before. My dark horse pick is Marcus Ericsson. Hopefully, he can get past the first turn this year. Another possible dark horse is Conor Daly. I said earlier this month to not sleep on him. He has a good car this year, and he knows his way around the place.

The weather forecast continues to look good for the entire weekend, but Sunday does have the biggest question mark about it. Last year, the forecast called for heavy rains and thunderstorms even a week before the race. I figured it would change as we got closer to Race Day, but it didn’t. What did we get? Heavy rains and thunderstorms. This year, the forecast has been good since I first looked on Sunday. It still looks good. They are calling for mostly sunny skies, but slightly cool. The high for Sunday is only 67˚. Our seats are in the afternoon shade on the west side of the main straightaway (Stand A). We may need a jacket, but so long as it’s dry – I don’t care.

We drove back up here last night, to attend the Carb Day practice and watch the Pit Stop Competition. It’s not my favorite day at IMS. After spending several days in late April and early May with virtually no one here, it’s tough to see a lot of non-racing fans take over the grounds, even for one Friday afternoon. Sunday will be different, with multi-generations of fans making their annual pilgrimage here.

Once again, my brothers will be in town and we will all be sitting together with all of our families. I last saw my oldest brother in July and the other in August. It will be good to visit with them over the weekend. My middle brother will be bringing a couple of Indianapolis 500 newbies with him this year – his son-in-law and the son-in-law’s father (although the father did attend the 1983 race – also with a rookie on pole). Hopefully they will both leave as new IndyCar fans.

We will all be going to the newly renovated IMS Museum on Saturday afternoon, after a nice breakfast at Charlie Brown’s. I’ve not yet seen the museum and I’m looking forward to it. We will have an early dinner out close to our hotel Saturday night and then get to bed early. We always try to be inside the gates and in the IMS Media Center before the opening bomb goes off promptly at 6:00 am. I will do a quick post here and then Susan and I will head out for breakfast. After that the crowds will really start pouring in. I always like to take a moment with myself – maybe strolling the pits and contemplating what stories may be unfolding in just a few hours.

Susan is still not fully recovered from being hospitalized most of the winter. We will need to get her to our seats earlier than usual, so that she can stop and rest periodically if she needs to, so my solitude moments may be shorter this year than usual.

I will (probably) have a post here this afternoon after the Carb Day practice, but chances are we won’t have anything here on Saturday. But I’ll be here first thing on Sunday morning, and again after the race and a possibly delayed mid-morning Random Thoughts on Monday.

This is shaping up to be a very good weekend and an excellent race on Sunday. Don’t forget, coverage on big FOX starts an hour earlier than normal – 10:00 am EDT. Let the weekend begin.

George Phillips

This entry was posted on May 23, 2025 at 4:04 am and is filed under Indianapolis 500. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.