Why Will Things Be Different This Time?
Sometimes I will throw out a rhetorical question on here, then end up giving what I consider to be the correct answer. In short, I give my opinion. Here, I am asking a real question that I have no idea what the answer is. I am asking a direct question and seeking an answer from readers. It might help if some of our friends from across the pond were to chime in on this. I am hoping to hear from Oliver, Trevor and Matthew, who all live in the UK; as well as Yannick, who I believe lives in Germany. But I also expect that many that are stateside will chime in also – at least I hope so.
I’ve made it clear that I don’t follow lower level sports, whether it be racing, baseball or even high school recruiting in college football. I don’t have room in my brain for athletes or drivers who have a slim chance of making it into the top level. I’ll bet I can’t name more than five current Indy NXT drivers, much less US F2000 or anything in between. I wait until they make it into IndyCar and then I study up on them.
In the fall of 2017, it was announced that Carlin Motorsports (or Carlin) from the UK, was expanding into IndyCar beginning with the 2018 season. This was labeled a big deal by many, because Carlin had won championships at practically every level of motorsports, even though they had never raced in any series that wasn’t junior level. Many highly educated and knowledgeable racing fans assumed it was a question of when, and not if, Carlin would start winning races and then championships.
I’ll be honest, due to my lack of knowledge regarding the junior formula teams, I had never heard of Carlin before this announcement. I trusted those that did, when they assured everyone that Carlin was going to find early success in IndyCar and they would bring IndyCar to a whole new level internationally.
As we all know, things did not go well. Their initial drivers, Max Chilton (son of one of their investors) and Charlie Kimball had unspectacular seasons, finishing nineteenth and seventeenth respectively in the 2018 championship standings. We didn’t realize it at the time, but that was as good as it would get for Carlin in IndyCar. After that, it all went terribly wrong.
At the end of the 2021 IndyCar season, Carlin left IndyCar and sold their IndyCar assets to Juncos Hollinger Racing. To say Carlin’s four-seaon venture into IndyCar was a failure, is a massive understatement.
Why was everyone so wrong? Was it their driver lineup? Did Carlin grossly underestimate what it was going to take to at least be competitive in the NTT IndyCar Series? Max Chilton was the common denominator, until he opted out of the ovals – except for the Indianapolis 500 – beginning in 2019. Was his heart not in it, even though he was the de facto leader of the team? Did they just run out of money?
I mentioned earlier that there was a question I did not know the answer to. None of these questions are it. I’ll get to my question shortly.
Almost three seasons have transpired since the departure of Carlin. After hearing rumblings for months, we finally got confirmation a few months ago that PREMA Racing will be fielding two fulltime cars in IndyCar beginning in 2025. Like the Carlin announcement in 2017, I had never heard of PREMA before. Those in the know say that PREMA has dominated in junior formula racing across the globe for decades. Even though they have never entered the top level of any form of racing (IndyCar, F1, NASCAR Cup), those familiar with PREMA say that their winning ways will translate to IndyCar. Does this sound familiar?
The big question I’m asking, is probably one that many people like me, who don’t follow feeder series is asking…If Carlin fell flat on its face after experiencing so much success as a junior formula team, why should we expect anything different from PREMA? The answer may be very simple, but being out of the junior formula loop – I don’t know it.
The talking (and writing) heads are uttering the exact same sound bites about PREMA, that they were saying about Carlin seven years ago. I don’t follow the world of junior formula racing, feeder series, lower level racing or whatever you want to call it. I know many of you do. I want to know what is different this time around. Why should I believe that four or five years from now, PREMA will not be tucking its tail and running back to Italy, where they are currently based?
There is speculation from some very credible sources that Alexander Rossi will be driving for PREMA, when the green flag falls next March in St. Petersburg. Apparently, PREMA has a load of cash behind them, and that might be enough to sway Rossi to join a start-up team. Rossi is an Indianapolis 500 winner, has won eight IndyCar races and has competed for the championship going into season finales. Carlin never had a driver with a resume like that. Is that supposed to be the difference in the fates of Carlin and PREMA?
As a Rossi fan, I hope it doesn’t happen. It may set him up for life financially, but if that happens – I think he will retire with the same winning stats he has right now. PREMA has stated that they would like to hire a successful veteran along with a promising young protégé. Rossi has a strong, independent personality. I have trouble seeing him being a mentor for a young driver, while his prime years are slipping through his fingers as he shepherds a neophyte and tries to carry a fledgling team on his shoulders. Would the promised bloated salary be enough to stem the growing frustration the lack of results would bring? I can’t answer that question.
Is PREMA more financially sound than Carlin was when they came over in 2018? Is their blueprint for the next five years dramatically different from that of Carlin in 2017?
Do European based racing teams look at IndyCar as easy pickings? McLaren has been a household name in the racing world for decades, yet they are still finding it hard to scrape together race wins. In five fulltime seasons, they have put together six wins. While that’s respectable, that’s not even close to the dominance we were told we might eventually expect from Carlin, and now PREMA.
I will never forget the first year I spent the entire week of practice at IMS in 2019. It was obvious that McLaren (who was paired with Carlin that year) was struggling to find speed. I was chatting with a few reporters, in the garage area when a McLaren high-ranking team member came up and was talking to one of the reporters. He was asked if they were concerned about making the race. His answer in a thick British accent still sticks with me today: “It’s four identical corners. How tough can it be?” That was Thursday. On Sunday, McLaren and Fernando Alonso were bumped out of the race by Kyle Kaiser and Juncos Racing. McLaren underestimated IMS, and I think most of Europe underestimates IndyCar
PREMA brings an impressive junior series resume to IndyCar, but so did Carlin. Please tell me why things will be different this time.
George Phillips
Oilpressure 
July 29, 2024 at 7:37 am
George, much the same as you, I can’t be bothered with the ‘lower leagues’, I’m semi-retired and have too much to do as it is! PREMA is certainly creating plenty of ink over here and certainly seems to be well funded. They should take reference to the “four corners” McLaren remark though. I don’t know whether IndyCar is particularly popular in Italy although I guess the sponsor’s territory will tell all. I haven’t seen if there is a lead sponsor? I wish them well, always good to see new faces.
July 29, 2024 at 8:05 am
George – In regards to McLaren, I wonder if their revolving door of drivers may be reflective of seeking quick wins, etc……………. ?
Mgt long term plan vs short term ………….. ?
Which has been followed?
July 29, 2024 at 8:52 am
Prema does have a longer history and a bit bigger trophy case than Carlin, though I’m not sure if that matters.
Carlin does indeed seem a cautionary tale for Prema, but as such it can also show them mistakes that they can avoid making. Hiring a capable and very competitive driver like Alexander Rossi is something Carlin never did. Carlin also based their team shop in Florida (with no history of being there or large pool of employees based there), another mistake Prema can avoid.
Still, winning in Indycar is hard (otherwise there wouldn’t be a “big” 2/3/4), and any new team will need to be patient rather than expect to compete for wins immediately. Even McLaren decided to take a “shortcut” when they entered, buying a team that was already competitive and had won races nearly as often as McLaren is doing now.
Carlin itself was ultimately a victim of never finding much money beyond the Chiltons, and that money started to evaporate as Max Chilton started to lose interest in the series. It is unfortunate for Carlin that COVID scuttled plans to field Felipe Nasr in 2020, a part-time ride that potentially could have blossomed into something more.
If Prema can bring in sponsorship, they’ll stick around. If they stick around and hire enough talented drivers and crew, they’ll probably win races.
July 29, 2024 at 9:00 am
Interesting question George.
Firstly I feel you need to get away from the possible idea that non American teams look at Indycar as easy pickings. That would be naive and foolhardy. The attraction is that it is a one make chassis series like F2 and they have good experiences of such series elsewhere.
Prema I am sure will have looked long and hard at the Carlin project.
From the outset we see them doing things in a different manner. They have hired Piers Phillips as the general manager who has massive experience within the series and can pull together a professional team of engineers, mechanics and the required staff. I rather expect he will leave once he has delivered the terms of his contract which probably includes the hiring of his replacement. Carlin if I remember correctly placed European mechanics of high quality in the Indycar team but who had no Indycar experience.
Prema have seemingly put together a full budget as the Indy based team shop ( unlike Carlin) is apparently busy building the structure of the race team and getting ready for the 2025 season with new cars and relevant equipment.
If Rossi has signed then they must have been able to show an exciting route map with all his questions answered to his satisfaction. He had a ride for 2025 at the time so no pressure there.
Carlin had a respectable but in my view second tier driver line up. Prema will not.
Prema are actually having a poor F2 campaign his year with two of the very best drivers so maybe that is a portend of this to come. Spreading themselves too thinly although that is pure speculation.
If they are fully funded then I would expect them to be much more competitive than Carlin whose initial reason to go Indycar racing was to give the majority shareholders son a drive. Prema will be looking at this as a longterm plan on a commercial basis. Are we going to have a team sponsor reveal before the season who is already signed and committed to this project in its entirety. I would not be surprised as when looking at building an Indycar team the Prema management I’m sure said to themselves that full funding had to be in place before they do anything else. This is not an emotional project but a commercial one managed by experienced racing individuals who already seem to have learnt from the Carlin experience. As we know nothing is guaranteed however I feel they have a better possibility of making a success of their endeavours especially if my assumption is correct that they have a full budget.
July 29, 2024 at 10:22 am
There’s currently a logjam with both teams and drivers wanting to progress to F1. F1’s owners are currently doing their best to make it a closed shop. Long gone are the days where you could knock together a car for a couple of million and pay 500k to the FIA to enter the championship. As Andretti has recently discovered.
So where to go for an ambitious F2 team? Formula E isn’t quite there on media interest and sportcars generally need a big manufacturer deal. IndyCar is likely seen as good value for money. Even if it’s only the 500 that gets publicity in Europe, it’s more than they’d get trundling an electric motor round a nondescript street circuit.
PREMA should do fine as long as they’re realistic. Spec series are about the accumulation of marginal gains and it’s no surprise that the successful IndyCar teams are the ones who’ve been doing it for decades (Foyt aside, of course). Carlin’s IndyCar program was mainly kept afloat by Max Chilton’s dad, and when that went away they were sunk. Be interesting to know how PREMA are going to be funded and what their “results timeline” is.
I think hiring Rossi may be a step too far for a team in its first season even if they have the money. It’s best not to expect too much in a new team, but it depends how Rossi sees himself now. Does he really not want to make the Fast 12 in qualifying for a season or two? I suspect his motivation would swiftly disappear. They’d be better off with someone like Grosjean for whom expectations wouldn’t be so high.
July 29, 2024 at 2:52 pm
If I were Rossi I’d look no further then when Jacques Villaneuve left Williams in F1 where he won the title, went to a startup team at BAR, and was never a threat for a win or podium again in his career. Little different situation here as Alex needs to find a landing place when there are virtually no quality seats available.
July 29, 2024 at 2:59 pm
“Around the world”, Indycar is considered less than a junior formula based on Super License points.
July 29, 2024 at 3:12 pm
While true to some extent, that is likely as much because the FIA has a vested interest in maintaining Formula 2 as a path to F1 as it is because Indycar lacks some level of respect that Formula 2 has.
Indycar is second only to Formula 2 in Super License points offered… and the champion of each is valued equally. The FIA considers it better prep for F1 based on SL points than several other well-regarded road racing-focused series, including Formula E, WEC, IMSA, and SuperFormula. The first two of those are even FIA-sanctioned.
July 30, 2024 at 11:59 am
Thanks George for the shoutout (or whatever the namedropping is called in proper English).
I don’t follow junior formulae either, so I cannot comment much on Prema. But their resume seems pretty good.
I don’t have much of an opinion on how Prema will perform but let me say it this way: their 1st year will be a good performance if they perform better than Euromotorsports did stateside back in the 90s. That’s where Luca Ghiotto most likely would have taken his sponsorship back in the day. And Francesco Dracone, too. Without any Euromotorsports on the grid anymore, they took it to Coyne.
Based on resume, your comparison of Prema to Carlin is obvious. However, if I recall correctly, Carlin US was not based in Indianapolis but somewhere farther South. So they had the same issue to attract engineering talent as Foyt (Houston) and Coyne (Chicago) do. I think Prema is said to base their US headquarters in the Indianapolis area. If they partner with the right team, they can become the next Meyer-Shank Racing in a few years.
I wish them well.
You want to see Alexander Rossi win races again and so do I. That battle with Scott Dixon in Watkins Glen a few years ago was quite something: it had elements of a changing of the guards. That didn’t happen then but it was down to Andretti Autosport’s engineering department in the following season. Here’s wishing Alexander Rossi a full and speedy recovery.
One thing seems to help new teams joining IndyCar, apart from a partnership with existing teams: Knowledge of some tracks from other forms of racing. That’s where non-US based teams are at a disadvantage.
Also, you have mentioned that “four equal corners” attitude with regard to Indianapolis. People with that attitude get it wrong when they do not take into account how many % of the lap accounts for each of those corners. And they only look the same when you don’t take into account the wind, traffic, shade, and details like that, which are less important in the individual corners of natural terrain road courses where one particular corner does make up way less % of the entire lap.
Elements of oval setups sometimes do surprise in European style top level racing, like when Mario Andretti had different tyre pressures on all 4 wheels in his World Championship season, adjusted to each track. Or when Jacques Villeneuve in his World Championship season surprised Ferrari’s Michael Schumacher in the 180 degree final corner of Estoril with a racing line that lead into a slipstreaming battle, which was only possible because Jacques chose a setup that enabled him to drive the faster outside line in that corner like he would on an oval.