Oilpressure

It has been a while since we have talked about someone having a lock on the NTT IndyCar Series championship, when the calendar still says June. But that’s where we are with Alex Palou having a 74-point lead over second-place – his own Ganassi teammate Marcus Ericsson.

But my question is – is it really a lock? Until all drivers are mathematically eliminated, you can’t really call it a done deal. But realistically, some leads are more insurmountable than others.

After winning the first race of the season two years ago, Alex Palou established himself as the championship leader early. It slipped away a couple of times as he and Pato O’Ward swapped out the points lead, with Scott Dixon always waiting in the wings to pounce. When he won at Road America in 2021, he assumed the points lead for the next couple of months. Road America was the ninth race of that seventeen race schedule, and Palou left Elkhart Lake with a 28-point lead over O’Ward with eight races to go in 2021.

Palou won again at Road America a couple of weeks ago. With nine races to go, Palou holds a 74-point lead over Ericsson. Palou could sit out Mid-Ohio and even if Ericsson won and maxed out on points – Palou would still hold more than a 20-point lead heading to Toronto.

So, is his lead insurmountable? It depends on who you ask, and how many people they think have a realistic chance to overtake him. In my opinion, there are still five drivers that I think still have a shot to win; Palou, Ericsson, Josef Newgarden, O’Ward and Dixon. O’Ward and Dixon are tied with 226 points – 98 points behind Palou. None of those drivers chasing Palou are slouches and three of them have won the Indianapolis 500.

The next race is at Mid-Ohio. Palou has never won there, but he has two podium finishes there. Scott Dixon has won several times there and is considered the master of that track. If Dixon performs well and Palou has some bad luck – Dixon can cut a huge swath through Palou’s lead. Dixon owns four wins at Toronto, including last year. If Palou falters two weeks in a rows, and Dixon has a usual Dixon weekend at both of those tracks – things could get dicey for Palou very quickly.

Alex Palou has raced at Iowa four times, with finishes of eleventh, fourteenth, sixth and tenth. Those aren’t horrible results, but they aren’t championship numbers either. When Palou won the championship in 2021, Iowa was not on the schedule. This year, it’s there twice. Josef Newgarden trails Palou in the standings by a healthy eighty-one points. Newgarden has as many wins as Iowa as Palou has starts – four. He is another driver that can really cut into Palou’s lead. Gateway is another track where Newgarden shines. He has won four at Gateway, including the last three times he’s races there. Palou’s best finish at Gateway is ninth one year ago. Palou was taken out at Gateway, during his championship season.

The point is, over the next few races – Alex Palou cannot afford to relax or get comfortable with his big lead. There are several excellent drivers behind him that can make his life miserable for the next couple of months. If he has a DNF here and a mediocre performance there; any of those four drivers could pounce and take full advantage of Palou’s misfortune.

Do I think it will happen? I don’t know. Nobody does. But if not Palou, then who? Josef Newgarden won five races last season, but lost the championship to a teammate that only won one race all season. Newgarden has two wins this season, compared to Palou’s three. I’m not sure I see Marcus Ericsson, who already has one win this season, winning three more – which it will probably take to beat Palou. But I can certainly see Josef Newgarden winning a couple of more.

Pato O’Ward is in a funk right now. He is trying to make too much happen, too quickly. At this rate, he’ll be lucky to win one race. Scott Dixon is tied with O’Ward at 98 points back, but he is still Scott Dixon – or close to it. Two weeks ago he made a very un-Dixon-like move at Road America, when he collided with Will Power in practice. The move had everyone whispering if this was the beginning of the end of Dixon’s career. He responded by finishing fourth after starting twenty-third. To barely miss the podium after a disastrous weekend is vintage Scott Dixon.

Of the two drivers not named Alex Palou, I think Josef Newgarden and Scott Dixon have the best chance of winning the 2023 championship. Right now, I’m not ready to conceded this championship to Palou just yet. I think Dixon and Newgarden may have something for him. Ask me a month from now, and I’ll probably have a different answer for you.

George Phillips

This entry was posted on June 28, 2023 at 4:02 am and is filed under IndyCar. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.